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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

But by the grace of emerging markets...

This "great recession" (or whatever the economists call it) is far from over for the millions of unemployed and underemployed, for the retailers, for the home builders, for the automotive manufacturers. It's hard to find any sector of the economy or any corner of the world that hasn't been affected. I recently started subscribing to the Economist magazine for its comprehensive coverage of world markets, and on the last page of each issue is a table of GDP growth by country and region. Quite sobering - every single country listed has had negative GDP growth (i.e., shrinkage) in 2009, every one except for China and India (Indonesia, Australia and Pakistan are also notable for being in positive GDP territory). Interesting. It's no wonder then, the Asian markets are the hottest ones for my company's products (also helping is the devalued US dollar making our products cheaper in overseas markets). But have the emerging economies gotten a bit too "frothy"? My stake in the emerging markets mutual fund NEWFX is up over 60% for the year. How long can the party last, especially when everyone else (US included) is left out in the cold?

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